CPh v.12.1: Frozen Loops, Massive LEAKS, the SHAME!

a12thHourTck

{ the 12th Hour via TckTckTck / Oxfam – London aquarium }

CSHame55

Cshame11

{ Outside the Øksnehallen, KlimaForum – the people’s venue – after Obama’s flailing speech }

Update: It’s official … the CPH summit will extend into the weekend.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon requested delegates stay for another day for more talks. See More … Xtended Day 12 report. at bottom.

Day 12: More reports/ XLt analysis later,  but for now Tina Gerhardt – the sleepless reports warrior from the inside -  – just sent a Day 11 Remix : w/ THE LEAKS + Below That Day 12 – the wrap …

Fwd: Dear all, I was grumbling at 6:00 pm yesterday, when I sent out my previous missive, that the day’s events at the summit had been boring… no real new news had filtered out, and that I didn’t trust it, that deals had to be in the making. Where’s the leaked document? I exclaimed, then pressed send. And then I learned that there had JUST been a leaked document revealing that the cuts that were going to be proposed would lead to
a 3Celsius rise.

Here (and below) is the Guardian article that broke the news:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/17/un-leaked-report-copenhagen-3c

Here is the leaked document:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/17/copenhagen-emissions-cuts-future-temperatures

Here’s Rob’s (Eshelman / the Nation ) analysis:
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/copenhagen/507098/breaking_news_from_cop15

::>>

Leaked UN report shows cuts offered at Copenhagen would lead to 3C rise

UN secretariat initial draft shows gap of up to 4.2 gigatonnes of CO2
between present pledges and cuts required to limit rise to 2C

* Suzanne Goldenberg, John Vidal and Jonathan Watts in Copenhagen
* guardian.co.uk, Thursday 17 December 2009 18.03 GMT

COP15 3C Environmental Destruction Threatens Kenya

Nomadic Turkana pastoralists at a dried out dam in Kenya. A rise of
3C would mean up to 170 million more people suffering severe coastal
floods and 550 million more at risk of hunger, according to the Stern
review. Photograph: Stephen Morrison/EPA

The emissions cuts offered so far at the Copenhagen climate change
summit would still lead to global temperatures rising by an average
of 3C, according to a confidential UN analysis obtained by the
Guardian.

With the talks entering the final 24 hours on a knife-edge, the
emergence of the document seriously undermines the statements by
governments that they are aiming to limit emissions to a level
ensuring no more than a 2C temperature rise over the next century,
and indicates that the last day of negotiations will be extremely
challenging.

A rise of 3C would mean up to 170 million more people suffering
severe coastal floods and 550 million more at risk of hunger,
according to the Stern economic review of climate change for the UK
government – as well as leaving up to 50% of species facing
extinction. Even a rise of 2C would lead to a sharp decline in
tropical crop yields, more flooding and droughts.

Tonight hopes of the summit producing a deal were rising after the
US, the world’s biggest historical polluter, moved to save the talks
from collapse.

The secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, committed the US to backing
a $100bn-a-year global climate fund from 2020 to shield poor
countries from the ravages of global warming. Barack Obama is
expected to offer even more cash when he flies in tomorrow.

Another key obstacle – the fate of the Kyoto treaty – was solved,
with China and the developing world seeing off attempts to kill the
protocol. But the UN analysis suggests much deeper cuts will have to
be agreed tomorrow to achieve the stated objective of limiting
temperature rises to 2C.

The document was drafted by the UN secretariat running the Copenhagen
summit and is dated 11pm on Tuesday night. It is marked “do not
distribute” and “initial draft”. It shows a gap of up to 4.2
gigatonnes of carbon emissions between the present pledges and the
required 2020 level of 44Gt, which is required to stay below a 2C
rise. No higher offers have since been made.

“Unless the remaining gap of around 1.9-4.2Gt is closed and Annexe 1
parties [rich countries] commit themselves to strong action before
and after 2020, global emissions will remain on an unsustainable
pathway that could lead to concentrations equal or above 550 parts
per million, with the related temperature rise around 3C,” it says.
It does not specify a time when 3C would be reached but it is likely
to be 2050.

Greenpeace campaigner Joss Garman said: “This is an explosive
document that shows the numbers on the table at the moment would lead
to nothing less than climate breakdown and an extraordinarily
dangerous situation for humanity.

The UN is admitting in private that the pledges made by world leaders
would lead to a 3C rise in temperatures. The science shows that could
lead to the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, crippling water
shortages across South America and Australia and the near-extinction
of tropical coral reefs, and that’s just the start of it.”

Bill McKibben, founder of the campaign 350.org, said: “In one sense
this is no secret – we’ve been saying it for months. But it is
powerful to have the UN confirming its own insincerity.” He did not
know why his name was written on the top of the document.

However, Bob Ward, at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate
Change at the London School of Economics, said current ambitions
could still be consistent with a 50% chance of meeting the 2C target.
“But it would require steeper reductions after 2020, which are likely
to be more costly, to be well below 35 billion tonnes in 2030 and
well below 20 billion tonnes in 2050.”

The goal of keeping the increase in global average temperatures below
2C, relative to pre-industrial levels, has become the figure that all
rich countries have committed to try to achieve in Copenhagen.
However, 102 of the world’s poorest countries are holding out for
emission cuts resulting in a temperature increase of no more than
1.5C.

Failing to do that, they say, would leave billions of people in the
world homeless, facing famine and open to catastrophic
weather-related disasters. But such an ambitious target would mean
carbon would have to be removed from the atmosphere.

The internal paper says: “Further steps are possible and necessary to
fill the gap. This could be done by increasing the aggregated
emission reductions [in rich countries] to at least 30% below the
baseline levels, further stronger voluntary actions by developing
countries [such as China and India] to reduce their emissions by at
least 20% below business as usual, and reducing further emissions
from deforestation and international aviation and marine shipping.”

Oxfam International’s climate adviser, Hugh Cole, said: “At this
stage, a deal that fails to keep temperature rises below two degrees
is simply not good enough.”

Earlier this week Rajendra Pachauri, who heads the UN’s
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said that even with 1.5C
rises, many communities would suffer.

“Some of the most vulnerable regions in the world will be worst
affected. These will be the largest countries in the developing
world. They have little infrastructure that might protect them from
climate change. The tragedyof the situation is that those countries
that have not at all contributed to the problem of climate change
will be the ones most affected,” he said.

“Some parts of the world, which even with a 1.5C rise, will suffer
great hardship and lose their ability to lead a decent and stable
form of existence. If we are going to be concerned about these
communities, then maybe 1.5C is what we should be targeting. But if
we can find means by which those communities can be helped to
withstand the impact of climate change with substantial flow of
finances, then maybe one can go to 2C.”

A UK government spokesman said last night: “The UK government
continues to work towards a 2 degree deal at Copenhagen and current
ambitions set us on track to meet that target. We know however that
more needs to be done before the talks conclude and that’s why the
Prime Minister, the Climate Change Secretary and British negotiators
will be working over these crucial next hours to secure a deal that
delivers.”

CSHAME44

CPh Reports DAY 12 Via Tina Gerhardt :

Dear all,

Here’s a wrap of Friday’ summit and actions … thus far …

1. Summit

Who’s Missing

A record number of 119 leaders fare gathered for the UN conference on climate change.
A record 193 countries are represented at the talks. Still, a number of heads of state didn’t come.

One group of countries on the list are oil producing. These include Angola, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (United Arab Emirates).
Another group consists of island states: Antigua & Barbuda, Barbados, Cape Verde, Cuba, Fiji, Jamaica, Solomon Islands and Tonga. Most of these nations, however, are represented in Copenhagen by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

Ten Latin American countries are not represented by their leaders: Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay.

Finally, for various reasons, the heads of state from Italy, Switzerland and Ukraine were not able to come – Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi because he is recovering from injuries after an attack
a couple of days ago.

Draft Text

After dinner at Queen Margarethe’s winded up at 11:00 pm last night, twenty-eight leaders drafted a text in the early hours of Friday morning. The meeting was officially scheduled from 1:30 – 4:00 a.m.

The draft text says nations OUGHT to limit global warming to 2 Celsius but does not require them to do so. The negotiations have, in other words, abandoned the 2 Celsius limit to global warming that climate scientists argue is necessary to avoid catastrophic consequences for much of the developing world. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) called for a 1.5 ceiling to prevent the submersion of its islands. And a 2 degree Celsius cap, x said, would mean a African Holocaust.

The draft text also proposes extending negotiations for another year, until the next meeting
in Mexico City in November, 2010.

Emissions

What is needed:

From developed nations: A reduction in emissions of emissions by 25-40 percent, based on 1990 levels, by 2020, and by 80-95 percent by 2050.

Note that the U.S.’s current offer of 17% is based on 2005 and not 1990 and thus amounts to a paltry 4% reduction.

The EU has offered 20 to 30% of 1990 levels.

From developing nations: A reduction of 15-30 percent by 2020, based on what is referred to as “business as usual” rates. In other words developed nations want to be permitted to emit more for a bit, arguing that developed nations are the ones who have emitted the most thus far and thus need to reduce the most. (This – in addition to monitoring – is the major issue between China and the U.S.)

Funding

Short-term or Fast-tracking: At least $10 billion a year is needed from developed economies on the fast track or in the short-term, to help developing nations adapt to climate changes.

Long-term: Between $100 and $400 billion a year is needed in long-term funding to help developing nations adapt to climate change.

Yesterday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton promised $100 billion / year in long term funding but she did not state how much the U.S. would contribute and whether the sources of the U.S. pledge would be public or private funds. This afternoon, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Bolivian President Evo Morales underscored the amount of funding that that the U.S. has spent, as they put it, to save capitalism, in other words to bail out banks, and also to fund wars, such as on Iraq and Afghanistan.

Vital: How is money managed?

Developing nations want the UN to continue to oversee the funds.
Developed nations want the World Bank to manage funds.

Kyoto

The Kyoto Protocol places clear responsibility on developed nations for producing climate change. It is also legally binding, provided a structure for monitoring and enforcement is set up.

My prediction?

No binding agreement will be reached here. The groundwork will be laid for the next meeting,
COP 16, which will take place in Mexico City, Mexico from November 8-19, 2010. (A prior discussion meeting will take place at the UNFCCC Headquarters in Bonn, Germany from May 31 – June 11, 2010.)

2. Actions

Banner unfurled

Yesterday afternoon, activists unfurled a large banner in the Radhuspladsen (the City Hall Square), site of the Hopenhagen music festival, covering some of the Hopenhagen building facade and the Hopenhagen placard.

Yesterday evening, about 100 persons gathered around the Hopenhagen globe, to set up Climate Camp. They chanted “Copenhagen – No Solution” as well as “Hopenhagen, What the fck?!” and “Our Climate, Not Your Business.” And they set up tents, intending to stay overnight. Police showed up soon thereafter. The activists left around 2:00 a.m.

People’s Platform

This morning, at 10:00 a.m. 150 activists showed up at the Bella Center to set up a People’s Platform. They protested the silencing of people inside the Bella Center, through the denial of registered delegates and the removal of NGOs, and outside through the mass arrests, the police violence and the unprovoked arrests of Climate Justice Action (CJA) spokespersons.

CJA Demo

CJA has called for a peaceful demonstration for this afternoon from Israels Place (Norreport station) to Christiansborg

The demonstration protests the lack of a treaty; the market-based solutions being put forward; the mass and indiscriminate arrest of 1000 activists in Saturday’s march; the police brutality and the threatened arrest of peaceful NGO delegates protestors seeking to join the demonstration at the Bella Center on Wednesday; and the arrest of three CJA spokespersons.

In the Bay Area, Climate Justice West has been organizing solidarity actions.
http://west.actforclimatejustice.org/

Please sign the petition to the Danish government protesting the violation of basic democratic rights through the arrest of Tadzio Mueller, who was arrested without provocation by plain clothed police shortly after a press conference announcing nonviolent demonstration plans and who remains in jail.
http://www.petitiononline.com/Tadzio/petition.html

>> Xtended Day 12 report.

Dear all,
It’s official … the CPH summit will extend into the weekend.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon requested delegates stay for another day for more talks.
1. Summit
Draft Text
Rumors of a new text called the Copenhagen Accord are floating around. It apparently drops the call for a legally binding agreement by the end of next year.
Meanwhile, Obama was in a meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. It seems that the tension between these two countries over the issue of monitoring is the main thing holding up the talks ….
Now, he’s busy with heads of state from the UK, France, Germany, Australia and Japan.
He’s allegedly heading to Hawaii later today for vacation.
My prediction?
No binding agreement will be reached here. The groundwork will be laid for the next meeting,
COP 16, which will take place in Mexico City, Mexico from November 8-19, 2010. (A prior discussion
meeting will take place at the UNFCCC Headquarters in Bonn, Germany from May 31 – June 11, 2010.)
2. Actions

CJA Demo

The CJA has started at the Israels Place (Norreport station), picking up lots of demonstrators
at the alternative summit / Klimaforum, which closes today. There are about 1500 persons in
it and it is heading through central Copenhagen to Christiansborg.
The demonstration protests the lack of a treaty; the market-based solutions being put forward;
the mass and indiscriminate arrest of 1000 activists in Saturday’s march; the police brutality and the threatened arrest of peaceful NGO delegates protestors seeking to join the demonstration at the Bella Center on Wednesday; and the arrest of three CJA spokespersons.
Please sign the petition to the Danish government protesting the violation of basic democratic rights through the arrest of Tadzio Mueller, who was arrested without provocation by plain clothed police shortly after a press conference announcing nonviolent demonstration plans and who remains in jail.

CSHAme666

tbc

Leave a Reply